What is the Electoral College?
The Electoral College is a process that consists of the selection of the electors, the meeting of the electors where they vote for President and Vice President, and the counting of the electoral votes by Congress.
In order for the candidate to win they must have at least 270 electors, basically more than half to win the electoral college.
What is a Swing State?
Swing states are states that could “swing” to either Democratic or Republican candidates depending on the election. For many years the states that would consider swinging have not changed. Therefore the swing states this year are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
How did the swing states vote in the 2020 presidential election? Are they expected to swing in a different direction in 2024?
In 2020, seven states won by a margin of three percentage points or less. These states included the five states from this year, in addition to North Carolina and Nevada.
2020 Swing State Results:
Arizona: Biden prevailed by a comfortable, if not overwhelming, margin, edging the state Democratic for the first time since 1996, backed by Maricopa County's urban and suburban voters.
Georgia: Biden's victory was a historic Democratic takeover, with high Black voter turnout and impressive organization in Atlanta and its metro area.
Michigan: Biden reclaimed Michigan, a state Trump won in 2016, with strong support from urban areas and a boost in suburban regions around Detroit.
Pennsylvania: At home, Biden won, retaking blue-collar communities and suburban Philadelphia.
Wisconsin: Biden won by a narrow margin, thanks to high turnout in Milwaukee and other cities.
2024 Projections:
For 2024, it's unclear if any of these states will go blue, but some trends seem likely:
Arizona and Georgia: Both might continue to be competitive, through demographic changes and good party organization. Biden's margins were narrow, but the states' voters could move on turnout and issues (abortion, the economy and healthcare).
Rust Belt States (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin): These states might still be playing fields where Republicans attempt to win back their 2016 citadels, particularly among working-class voters. Democrats will need to secure these states with urban and suburban voters.
Emerging Swing States: States like North Carolina and Texas, where Biden came close in 2020, could see increased attention if demographic changes continue to trend Democratic.
All of these swing states are unpredictable and both sides will want to saturate them with targeted messages and campaign resources in 2024.
How has the reality of the Electoral College affected the way the candidate has spent time and money campaigning?
The Electoral College dramatically influences presidential elections in a way, which requires candidates to focus their efforts and attention on swing states. This concentration meant that campaigns pour massive amounts of money into targeted advertising, events, and develop scripts to capture local concerns and demographics. Candidates therefore have every motive to modify their strategy to focus on issues that are especially persuasive to swing state voters, and to raise their profile as Election Day comes nearby with rallies and town halls. This kind of focus not only raises the likelihood of winning Electoral College votes, but also affects the media, since close races get more coverage, and in that way help candidates' messages to get out. It's the Electoral College ultimately that dictates the character of political action, privileging local strategy over national strategy, and thus determining the way in which presidential elections are conducted in the United States.
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Sources:
Galston, William. “New 2020 Voter Data: How Biden Won, How Trump Kept the Race Close, and What It Tells Us about the Future.” Brookings, 6 July 2021, www.brookings.edu/articles/new-2020-voter-data-how-biden-won-how-trump-kept-the-race-close-and-what-it-tells-us-about-the-future/.
Igielnik, Ruth, et al. “Behind Biden’s 2020 Victory.” Pew Research Center, 30 June 2021, www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/.
USA Facts. “What Are the Current Swing States, and How Have They Changed over Time?” USAFacts, 1 Nov. 2022, usafacts.org/articles/what-are-the-current-swing-states-and-how-have-they-changed-over-time/.
“Infographic: How the Swing States Swung.” Statista Infographics, www.statista.com/chart/23434/swing-state-results-2020-election/.
“The Political Evolution of J.D. Vance.” WRVO Public Media, WRVO, 17 July 2024, www.wrvo.org/2024-07-17/the-political-evolution-of-j-d-vance. Accessed 4 Nov. 2024.
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